{"id":32098,"date":"2017-07-22T19:00:20","date_gmt":"2017-07-22T22:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/?p=32098"},"modified":"2017-07-13T16:04:13","modified_gmt":"2017-07-13T19:04:13","slug":"que-es-el-cambio-climatico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/que-es-el-cambio-climatico\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQu\u00e9 es el cambio clim\u00e1tico?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Buenos Aires.-En muchas ocasiones los conceptos de variabilidad clim\u00e1tica y cambio clim\u00e1tico se utilizan como sin\u00f3nimos, pero no significan lo mismo.<\/p>\n

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Por\u00a0variabilidad clim\u00e1tica<\/strong>\u00a0se entiende a las fluctuaciones de los componentes del clima (temperatura, precipitaciones, etc\u2026) dentro de los l\u00edmites aceptados como normales, durante per\u00edodos de tiempo determinados, que pueden ser semanas, meses o a\u00f1os. Los eventos que se encuentran fuera de estos l\u00edmites pueden ser considerados como an\u00f3malos con respecto a un cierto nivel de tolerancia.<\/p>\n

El\u00a0cambio clim\u00e1tico<\/strong>\u00a0se refiere a una variaci\u00f3n significativa en los componentes del clima cuando se comparan per\u00edodos prolongados, pudiendo ser d\u00e9cadas o m\u00e1s; por ejemplo, la temperatura media de la d\u00e9cada del 50 con respecto a la temperatura media de la d\u00e9cada del 90.<\/p>\n

El clima de la tierra ha variado muchas veces a lo largo de su historia debido a cambios naturales, como las erupciones volc\u00e1nicas, los cambios en la \u00f3rbita de traslaci\u00f3n de la tierra, las variaciones en la composici\u00f3n de la atm\u00f3sfera, entre otros.<\/p>\n

Pero, desde los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os del siglo XIX, la temperatura media de la superficie terrestre ha aumentado m\u00e1s de 0,6\u00baC. Este aumento est\u00e1 vinculado al proceso de industrializaci\u00f3n iniciado hace m\u00e1s de un siglo y, en particular, a la combusti\u00f3n de cantidades cada vez mayores de petr\u00f3leo y carb\u00f3n, la tala de bosques y algunos m\u00e9todos de explotaci\u00f3n agr\u00edcola.<\/p>\n

Un informe del Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (IPCC) afirma que: \u201cEs sumamente probable que m\u00e1s de la mitad del aumento observado en la temperatura media global en superficie en el per\u00edodo de 1951 a 2010 haya sido causado por la combinaci\u00f3n del incremento de las concentraciones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero antrop\u00f3genas y de otros forzamientos antrop\u00f3genos\u201d (IPCC, 2013:15).<\/p>\n

Los\u00a0Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI)<\/strong>, entre los que se encuentran el di\u00f3xido de carbono (CO2), el \u00f3xido nitroso (N2O) y el metano (CH4), tienen la propiedad de absorber y reemitir radiaci\u00f3n infrarroja que la tierra recibe del sol. Gracias a ellos, ocurre un fen\u00f3meno conocido como efecto invernadero natural, que permite que la Tierra mantenga una temperatura promedio 15\u00baC. Si no existiera este efecto, la temperatura promedio ser\u00eda de -18\u00ba C.<\/p>\n

Si bien algunos de estos gases se encuentran naturalmente en la atm\u00f3sfera, otros son producidos por el ser humano (de origen antr\u00f3pico) como resultado de actividades vinculadas a la generaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda, el transporte, el uso del suelo, la industria, el manejo de los residuos, etc. La acumulaci\u00f3n de estos gases en la atm\u00f3sfera potencia el efecto invernadero natural y esto se traduce en aumento de la temperatura del planeta.<\/p>\n

El informe del IPCC se\u00f1ala que la acci\u00f3n humana es la principal responsable del aumento de la temperatura en el \u00faltimo siglo, donde \u201csumamente probable\u201d equivale a un rango de probabilidad entre el 95% y el 100% (IPCC, 2013).<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan el \u00faltimo inventario de GEIs, el 51 % de las emisiones del pa\u00eds est\u00e1n vinculadas al agro y a la deforestaci\u00f3n; el 23 %, a la producci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica; el 12 %, al transporte; el 9 %, a la industria y el 5 %, a los residuos.<\/p>\n

El calentamiento en el sistema clim\u00e1tico es inequ\u00edvoco. Muchos de los cambios observados desde la d\u00e9cada de 1950 no han tenido precedentes en los \u00faltimos decenios ni milenios. La atm\u00f3sfera y el oc\u00e9ano se han calentado, los vol\u00famenes de nieve y hielo han disminuido y el nivel del mar se ha elevado.<\/p>\n

En todos los escenarios de emisiones evaluados, las proyecciones se\u00f1alan que la temperatura en superficie continuar\u00e1 aumentando a lo largo del siglo XXI. Es muy probable que las olas de calor ocurran con mayor frecuencia y duren m\u00e1s tiempo, y que los episodios de precipitaciones extremas sean m\u00e1s intensos y frecuentes en muchas regiones. El oc\u00e9ano se seguir\u00e1 calentando y acidificando y el nivel medio global del mar continuar\u00e1 elev\u00e1ndose.<\/p>\n

Los\u00a0impactos<\/strong>\u00a0que hoy sufre el planeta obligan a tomar medidas inmediatas que implican grandes esfuerzos econ\u00f3micos. En general, son los pa\u00edses que a\u00fan no han alcanzado su pleno desarrollo quienes sufren con mayor gravedad este fen\u00f3meno, a pesar de no ser los principales causantes. En este sentido, el cambio clim\u00e1tico incrementa las desigualdades ya existentes entre los diferentes pa\u00edses, pudiendo generar un nuevo obst\u00e1culo al desarrollo de los pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n

Los cient\u00edficos dejan claro que ser\u00e1 necesario un gran cambio institucional y tecnol\u00f3gico para que el calentamiento global no supere los 2\u00baC promedio sobre la superficie del planeta y para que exista una mayor probabilidad de evitar la ocurrencia de da\u00f1os catastr\u00f3ficos e irreversibles.<\/p>\n

Entre las\u00a0principales consecuencias<\/strong>\u00a0del cambio clim\u00e1tico, se destacan:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • El cambio de circulaci\u00f3n de los oc\u00e9anos.<\/li>\n
  • El aumento o disminuci\u00f3n de las precipitaciones (seg\u00fan la zona geogr\u00e1fica).<\/li>\n
  • El aumento del nivel del mar.<\/li>\n
  • El retroceso de los glaciares.<\/li>\n
  • El aumento de los eventos clim\u00e1ticos extremos.<\/li>\n
  • El aumento de las olas de calor y fr\u00edo.<\/li>\n
  • El aumento de las migraciones (tanto por emergencias causadas por cat\u00e1strofes, como por trabajo).<\/li>\n
  • El aumento de problemas en la salud e incremento del n\u00famero y casos de enfermedades, entre otros.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n
    \n
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    <\/h3>\n
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    • \n
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      \u00a0Fuente: Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable de la Naci\u00f3n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

       <\/p>\n

      <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Buenos Aires.-En muchas ocasiones los conceptos de variabilidad clim\u00e1tica y cambio clim\u00e1tico se utilizan como sin\u00f3nimos, pero no significan lo 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