{"id":53578,"date":"2018-09-25T09:00:19","date_gmt":"2018-09-25T12:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/?p=53578"},"modified":"2018-09-24T18:53:03","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T21:53:03","slug":"explican-por-que-el-historico-acuerdo-de-paris-no-lograra-prevenir-la-catastrofe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/explican-por-que-el-historico-acuerdo-de-paris-no-lograra-prevenir-la-catastrofe\/","title":{"rendered":"Explican por qu\u00e9 el hist\u00f3rico acuerdo de Par\u00eds no lograr\u00e1 prevenir la cat\u00e1strofe"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Un equipo de cient\u00edficos del Instituto Internacional para el An\u00e1lisis de Sistemas Aplicados (IIASA, por sus siglas del ingl\u00e9s) descubri\u00f3 que la humanidad est\u00e1 m\u00e1s cerca de superar el presupuesto de emisiones de di\u00f3xido de carbono previsto en el acuerdo de Par\u00eds. Y este proceso puede acelerarse.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

El presupuesto de emisiones de di\u00f3xido de carbono (CO2) se refiere al nivel de emisi\u00f3n que no amenaza con provocar el calentamiento global. Es una parte integral del acuerdo de Par\u00eds, firmado en 2015.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Calor\"<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Este presupuesto actualmente est\u00e1 valorado en unas 550 gigatoneladas de CO2 y est\u00e1 previsto que con el ritmo de emisiones actual se agote en seis a\u00f1os.Sin embargo, un estudio reciente alerta de que estas estimaciones, ya poco prometedoras, pueden verse afectadas por el\u00a0r\u00e1pido derretimiento del permahielo.<\/a><\/p>\n

El permahielo, o permafrost, es una parte del terreno que permanece congelada durante al menos un a\u00f1o durante dos a\u00f1os consecutivos. Al estar congelada durante prolongados per\u00edodos de tiempo, acumula enormes cantidades de di\u00f3xido de carbono y otros nutrientes de origen org\u00e1nico. As\u00ed, se convierte en un gran dep\u00f3sito de esta sustancia, que a menudo no figura en las estimaciones del ritmo del calentamiento global.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

La capa superior del permahielo, tambi\u00e9n llamado activo, suele derretirse peri\u00f3dicamente en verano, pero en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os la ‘profundidad’ de este derretimiento se ha expandido debido al aumento de las temperaturas. Significa que ahora hay una mayor cantidad de permafrost propensa a derretirse, liberando su CO2 en la atm\u00f3sfera.\u00bbEsta emisi\u00f3n de carbono de la materia org\u00e1nica congelada, causada por el alza de las temperaturas, sin duda disminuir\u00e1 el presupuesto del CO2 que podemos emitir si queremos mantenernos por debajo de un cierto l\u00edmite del calentamiento global\u00bb, explic\u00f3 el principal autor del\u00a0estudio<\/a>, Thomas Gasser.<\/p>\n

Gasser agrega que la liberaci\u00f3n de CO2 del permafrost, estimada entre 30 y 100 gigatoneladas, \u00abes un proceso irreversible en el marco de varios siglos\u00bb, as\u00ed que puede representar un desaf\u00edo para el modelo usado para el acuerdo de Par\u00eds, ideado como una aproximaci\u00f3n lineal.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Almac\u00e9n<\/div>\n
\u00a9 SPUTNIK \/ TARAS LITVINENKO<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
No obstante, los cient\u00edficos del IIASA consideran que la principal amenaza radica en que se superen los l\u00edmites que fueron fijados por la comunidad internacional para el crecimiento de la temperatura media.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

As\u00ed, el acuerdo de Par\u00eds admite que se exceda la temperatura media establecida, siempre que esta est\u00e9 por debajo de los 2\u00b0C, y sus partes firmantes planean aplicar esfuerzos para reducir este l\u00edmite hasta los 1,5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Pero esto es una estrategia arriesgada, advierte Gasser, y no solamente porque \u00abretornar a niveles m\u00e1s bajos es extremadamente dif\u00edcil\u00bb, sino que durante este per\u00edodo de emisiones m\u00e1s intensas el permahielo va a derretirse de una manera acelerada, liberando cada vez m\u00e1s CO2 en la atm\u00f3sfera, lo que complica el modelo entero de la gesti\u00f3n de las emisiones.<\/p>\n

\u00abDesde que aceptamos oficialmente que se pueden exceder los l\u00edmites, tenemos que estar preparados para la posibilidad de que nunca podamos regresar a niveles m\u00e1s seguros\u00bb, enfatiz\u00f3.<\/p>\n

En este sentido, el cient\u00edfico espera que su estudio incentive a los pol\u00edticos a revisar su actitud hacia el concepto de los ‘presupuestos de carbono’, que result\u00f3 m\u00e1s complicado de lo que se pensaba antes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
Fuente:\u00a0https:\/\/mundo.sputniknews.com\/ecologia\/201809201082119086-acuerdo-paris-no-lograra-prevenir-catastrofe\/<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Un equipo de cient\u00edficos del Instituto Internacional para el An\u00e1lisis de Sistemas Aplicados (IIASA, por sus siglas del ingl\u00e9s) descubri\u00f3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53579,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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