{"id":61348,"date":"2019-06-02T07:00:47","date_gmt":"2019-06-02T10:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/?p=61348"},"modified":"2019-05-30T15:00:18","modified_gmt":"2019-05-30T18:00:18","slug":"el-calentamiento-global-podria-elevar-el-nivel-del-mar-mas-de-dos-metros-para-2100","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/patagoniambiental.com.ar\/info\/el-calentamiento-global-podria-elevar-el-nivel-del-mar-mas-de-dos-metros-para-2100\/","title":{"rendered":"El calentamiento global podr\u00eda elevar el nivel del mar m\u00e1s de dos metros para 2100"},"content":{"rendered":"
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El deshielo creciente en la Ant\u00e1rtida y Groenlandia significar\u00eda la p\u00e9rdida de 1.79 millones de km2 de tierra y un posible desplazamiento de hasta 187 millones de personas<\/p>\n<\/header>\n

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El iceberg Thwaites es uno de los m\u00e1s inestables de la zona oeste de la Ant\u00e1rtida (NASA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Que las capas de hielo de la\u00a0Ant\u00e1rtida\u00a0<\/b>y\u00a0Groenladia\u00a0<\/b>sigan derriti\u00e9ndose por culpa del\u00a0calentamiento global\u00a0<\/b>dar\u00e1 como consecuencia inevitable el aumento del\u00a0nivel del mar<\/b>\u00a0(SLR, por sus siglas en ingl\u00e9s) y esto supondr\u00e1 un gran riesgo para las comunidades costeras y los ecosistemas.<\/p>\n

Para poder anticiparse a un escenario negro y buscar medidas para mitigarlo, un equipo de cient\u00edficos internacional ha elaborado una proyecci\u00f3n global que arroja una t\u00e9cnica llamada\u00a0Juicio de expertos estructurados<\/b>\u00a0(SEJ). Este grupo cient\u00edfico, dirigido por la Universidad de\u00a0Bristol<\/b>, pidi\u00f3 a 22 expertos de la capa de hielo que estimaran\u00a0rangos plausibles\u00a0<\/b>para el aumento futuro del nivel del mar debido a la fusi\u00f3n proyectada para cada una de las zonas emergidas cubiertas de hielo.<\/p>\n

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<\/ins><\/span><\/span>Los hallazgos,\u00a0publicados en la revista Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/a>, pronostican un aumento considerable del nivel del mar para finales de este sigo. Un aumento que podr\u00eda llegar a ser de m\u00e1s de dos metros para 2100.<\/p>\n

Con este m\u00e9todo se arroja una probabilidad peque\u00f1a pero significativa de que la SLR excediera los dos metros para el a\u00f1o 2100 en el escenario de alta temperatura<\/p>\n

JONATHAN BAMBER<\/span>\u00a0Autor principal de estudio y profesor de la Faultad de Ciencias Geogr\u00e1ficas de la Universidad de Bristol<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\u201dLas proyecciones de la\u00a0SLR\u00a0<\/b>global total con este m\u00e9todo arrojaron una probabilidad peque\u00f1a pero significativa de que la SLR excediera los dos metros para el a\u00f1o 2100 en el escenario de alta temperatura, aproximadamente equivalente a \u2018business as usual\u2019, muy por encima del l\u00edmite superior \u2018probable\u2019 presentado en el Quinto informe de evaluaci\u00f3n del Panel Intergubernamental sobre el Cambio Clim\u00e1tico (IPCC) \u201c, explica\u00a0Jonathan\u00a0<\/b>Bamber<\/b>, autor principal de estudio y profesor de la\u00a0Faultad\u00a0<\/b>de Ciencias Geogr\u00e1ficas de la Universidad de<\/b>\u00a0Bristol<\/b>.<\/p>\n

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Los hallazgos sugieren que las comunidades costeras, por lo tanto, no deben descartar la posibilidad de que las c\u00e1maras\u00a0SLR\u00a0<\/b>del\u00a0siglo\u00a0<\/b>XXI\u00a0<\/b>superen los dos metros cuando desarrollen estrategias de adaptaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Tal aumento en el nivel del mar global podr\u00eda resultar en una p\u00e9rdida de tierra de 1.79 millones de km2, incluidas las regiones cr\u00edticas de la producci\u00f3n de alimentos<\/p>\n

Millones de kil\u00f3metros de tierra perdida y de personas desplazadas<\/b><\/p>\n

Tal aumento en el nivel del mar global podr\u00eda resultar en una p\u00e9rdida de tierra de 1.79 millones de km2, incluidas las regiones cr\u00edticas de la producci\u00f3n de alimentos, y un posible desplazamiento de hasta 187 millones de personas. \u201cUn aumento del nivel del mar de esta magnitud tendr\u00eda claramente consecuencias profundas para humanidad\u201d, agrega\u00a0Bamber<\/b>.<\/p>\n

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<\/ins><\/span><\/span>Un aumento del nivel del mar de esta magnitud tendr\u00eda claramente consecuencias profundas para humanidad<\/p>\n

JONATHAN BAMBER<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>El proceso de la\u00a0SEJ\u00a0<\/b>brind\u00f3 una oportunidad para que los expertos discutan sus fundamentos cient\u00edficos para los juicios cuantitativos que hacen sobre las incertidumbres relacionadas con las futuras contribuciones de la capa de hielo al nivel del mar.<\/p>\n

Este enfoque \u00fanico tambi\u00e9n sirvi\u00f3 para identificar algunos procesos poco conocidos pero potencialmente cr\u00edticos, como la \u201cinestabilidad del acantilado de hielo marino\u201d, que puede actuar en el futuro como puntos de inflexi\u00f3n significativos en la respuesta de la capa de hielo al aumento de la temperatura.<\/p>\n

Limitar la atenci\u00f3n al rango \u2018probable\u2019, como fue el caso en el Quinto Informe de Evaluaci\u00f3n del IPCC, puede ser enga\u00f1oso y probablemente lleve a una evaluaci\u00f3n deficiente de los verdaderos riesgos<\/p>\n

WILLY ASPINALL<\/span>\u00a0Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra de la Universidad de Bristol<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Una innovaci\u00f3n clave en este trabajo es el modelado de dependencias determinadas aleatoriamente entre los procesos de acumulaci\u00f3n, escorrent\u00eda y descarga en cada capa de hielo: t\u00e9cnicas, dice el equipo de investigaci\u00f3n, que esperan poder desarrollarse y aplicarse m\u00e1s en otras \u00e1reas de la investigaci\u00f3n del clima.<\/p>\n

El coautor, el profesor\u00a0Willy Aspinall<\/b>, de la\u00a0Facultad de Ciencias de la Tierra\u00a0<\/b>de la Universidad\u00a0<\/b>de Bristol, agreg\u00f3: \u201cLimitar la atenci\u00f3n al rango \u2018probable\u2019, como fue el caso en el Quinto Informe de Evaluaci\u00f3n del IPCC, puede ser enga\u00f1oso y probablemente lleve a una evaluaci\u00f3n deficiente de los verdaderos riesgos\u201d.<\/p>\n

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<\/ins><\/span><\/span>Articulo cient\u00edfico de referencia:<\/b><\/p>\n

\u2018Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment Jonathan L. Bamber, Michael Oppenheimer, Robert E. Kopp, Willy P. Aspinall, and Roger M. Cooke PNAS first published May 20, 2019\u00a0https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1817205116<\/a><\/p>\n

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Fuente:\u00a0https:\/\/www.lavanguardia.com\/natural\/cambio-climatico\/20190521\/462393404296\/calentamiento-global-nivel-mar-deshielo.html<\/div>\n

<\/ins><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El deshielo creciente en la Ant\u00e1rtida y Groenlandia significar\u00eda la p\u00e9rdida de 1.79 millones de km2 de tierra y un 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